Expert NBA Playoffs Best Bets and NBA Player Props

The 2023-2024 NBA regular season is over and we’ve turned the page on the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to bring you his exceptional coverage of the biggest competition in the world. Click here for all his content. However, all of my picks will appear in this daily column, which combines my best NBA bets and NBA player props. So read on to find out how I will play the play-off matches on Thursday, May 9. Also check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all our series previews and additional post-season content.

We’ve also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis of everything you’ll see in the coming weeks.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 9

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NBA Best Bets Today – May 9

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City won Game 1 by 22 points and looked like a much better basketball team on both ends of the floor. However, I still have a hard time dismissing Dallas as a 5-point underdog. I know Luka Doncic didn’t look healthy in the series opener, but the Mavericks are doing everything they can to get the superstar ready. And Doncic is a player who has played through pain in the past. So I’m confident he can still deliver big offensively, even now that the Thunder have a few players they can throw at him in this series. We should also see a more aggressive version of Kyrie Irving, who took just 14 shots in Game 1. And if those two play a little better in this game, Dallas should be live. And that’s especially true when you take into account the law of averages from the three-point line.

In Game 1, the Thunder went 16 for 35 from behind the three-point line. Oklahoma City shot the best three-point percentage in the league during the regular season, drilling 38.9% from deep. But 45.7% in a playoff game is a bit crazy, especially against a Dallas team that can actually defend. So I would expect the Thunder to struggle to reach that number again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come back to Earth. Meanwhile, Dallas was just 12 for 35 from 3 in Game 1, shooting 34.3% from 3. But the Mavericks made 14.6 3s per game during the regular season and shot 36.9% from deep. So they can definitely be a little better from 3-point land.

I also just trust that Jason Kidd will make the right adjustments heading into tonight. Dallas did well and bounced back from losses to the Los Angeles Clippers in the previous round. And while this Oklahoma City team is a completely different beast, I don’t think there’s much difference between the two teams we’ll see on the field tonight. So I’m happy to take the points and sprinkle the moneyline on a team I originally liked to win the series on. Winning in Oklahoma City is certainly not easy, but it is not impossible either. And having a good defense and two incredible isolation scorers is a good recipe for showing up in a tough environment.

Bet: Mavericks +5 (-110 – 2 units) & Mavericks ML (+175 – 0.5 units)

NBA player props today – May 9

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics – 7:00 PM ET

Donovan Mitchell averaged 28.7 points per game in Cleveland’s first-round series against the Orlando Magic. And the Star Guard scored a total of 89 points in the final two games of that series. Then Mitchell went out and scored 33 points on 12 of 25 shooting in Game 1 of this series. Cleveland is such a mess offensively that the team’s best option is to roll the ball to Mitchell and let him do what he wants. That’s why he has the second-highest usage rate of any player in the playoffs. And that’s enough for me to back Mitchell and score at least 30 points tonight. Even if Mitchell doesn’t do it efficiently, I just don’t see him struggling to put points on the board. Boston has guys who can make things difficult for Mitchell, but the team chooses to stay home with him and not let anyone else beat them. And as long as Mitchell sees enough isolation opportunities, he should reach the 30-point mark.

Bet: Mitchell over 29.5 points (-109)

Record 2023-24: 357-391-3 (+7.58 units)