The latest polls show Baldwin leading Hovde » Urban Milwaukee

U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin. Senate Democrats, (CC BY 2.0), via Wikimedia Commons

With Election Day less than six months away, several new polls show the Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin leading Republican challenger Erik Hovde in the race for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seat.

(inarticled) That includes one survey that showed a double-digit lead for Baldwin, who has taken the lead among registered voters in every poll conducted since Hovde entered the race.

A Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday shows Baldwin leading Hovde by 12 percentage points among registered voters, with 54 percent saying they would vote for Baldwin and 42 percent saying they would vote for Hovde.

The poll surveyed 1,457 registered voters between May 2 and 6. The poll has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

Of those surveyed, 49 percent had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, while 35 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her. Hovde’s numbers were somewhat underwater, with 23 percent of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 25 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion. Half of respondents in the poll said they had not heard enough about Hovde to form an opinion, while 15 percent said they had not heard enough about Baldwin.

Republican Eric Hovde announces his campaign for U.S. Senate on Tuesday, February 20, 2024, in Madison, Wisconsin. Angela Major/WPR

Cook Senate Political Report and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor told WPR she thinks Baldwin currently has the advantage in the Senate race in Wisconsin, but she said Quinnipiac’s results appear to be an outlier.

“I don’t think there’s a Democrat or Republican in Wisconsin or D.C. who thinks this is going to be a 12-point race either way,” Taylor said. “Even in 2018, when Baldwin ran against a very weak candidate in a very favorable Democratic year, she did not win by 12 points.” In 2018, Baldwin defeated former Republican Senator Senator. Leah Vukmir by almost 11 percentage points.

While the Quinnipiac poll may be an outlier in terms of margin, Baldwin has had a lead over Hovde among registered voters in all other polls in the race this year. A poll conducted by The Hill newspaper and Emerson College between April 25 and 29 shows Baldwin leading Hovde 46-43, with 11 percent of voters reporting they are undecided.

A CBS News poll of registered voters in Wisconsin taken the week before showed Baldwin leading Hovde 48-41 percent. Eight percent of respondents said they were unsure who they would vote for and three percent said they would choose someone else.

Finally, a Marquette University Law School poll conducted in early April found Baldwin ahead of Hovde by five percentage points among registered voters, including “leaners,” or voters who initially said they were unsure who they would support.

Among likely voters — those with stronger party support — the Marquette poll showed the race tied 50-50. Marquette has historically placed more emphasis on its findings among registered voters at this stage of the election cycle, shifting its focus to likely voters as Election Day approaches.

As the battle for the Senate heats up, Baldwin and Hovde are pursuing different avenues to recruit voters

Hovde and Baldwin are taking noticeably different approaches to their campaigns, Taylor said, with Hovde focusing on national issues such as the economy and the southern border, which top the list of concerns in national and Wisconsin polls. His campaign is also trying to link Baldwin to the Democratic president’s unpopularity Joe Bidenwith Hovde ads repeatedly claiming that the progressive senator has sided with Joe Biden “95.5% of the time.”

“If Biden loses this state, it could be very difficult for Tammy Baldwin to outperform Biden,” Taylor said. “Democrats I’ve talked to say, ‘Absolutely, her biggest weakness is Biden on top of the ticket.’” But Taylor said Baldwin is a “very smart campaigner” and Republicans have told her “you underestimate Tammy Baldwin at your peril .”

‘She’s very good at sharing shifts. She goes to more rural areas of the state, and she doesn’t have to win there, but she doesn’t lose as much either,” Taylor said. “And then when you add up the redder parts of the state with the more liberal places like Milwaukee and Madison, it can make a difference in those types of races.”

Beyond Biden’s unpopularity, Taylor said, Hovde’s wealth, his ability to self-finance his campaign and the fact that he has no major Republican Party primary opponents are a significant boost for the Republican businessman.

Alternatively, she said national Republicans have told her they would like to see “a more disciplined campaign” from Hovde. Taylor said Democrats have taken advantage of Hovde’s previous comments, including a comment about nursing home residents not being “about to vote” because of limited life expectancy. During his failed Senate run in 2012, Hovde said obese people should pay more for health care.

“He recorded a three-minute video on social media responding to comments at the nursing home,” Taylor said. ‘You don’t want to keep the story alive. He did that.”

The meeting between Baldwin and Hovde could ultimately be crucial to Republicans’ hopes of regaining control of the U.S. Senate, but Taylor said the races in Montana and Ohio “given the numbers” offer a better opportunity for the Republican Party.

“I think at this point we just don’t know what the numbers are going to look like this fall,” Taylor said.

Listen to the WPR report

Recent polls show Baldwin leading Hovde in the Senate race was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.