Trump’s conviction gives some Republicans pause in the key province of Pennsylvania

BANGOR, Pa. — Bronwen Brown, a registered Republican in a nearby Pennsylvania county, was prepared to vote for Donald Trump again in November despite long-held reservations about his character. His conviction by a jury in New York has left her with doubts.

“He was found guilty on all 34 counts. Do I want to agree to that? Probably not,” the 72-year-old former opera singer told Reuters minutes after Trump became the first former US president to be convicted of a crime.

“Maybe I’ll switch to Biden,” she said, referring to President Joe Biden, Trump’s Democratic opponent in the Nov. 5 election.

Brown is a resident of Bangor, a borough in Northampton County, a predominantly rural and white region of 320,000 residents that in recent decades has become a showcase for presidential winners in battleground state Pennsylvania and across the country .

Reuters spoke to 22 women across the country this week, including a dozen Republican voters and 10 who favor Democrats, to gauge their reactions to the trial.

Public opinion polls have shown women are more likely than men to be swayed by the case, in which Trump was found guilty of falsifying documents to cover up a payment to silence a porn star about an alleged affair prior to the 2016 election – a contact that Trump denies.

Brown was one of two Republican women interviewed who said a conviction would make them hesitant to support Trump.

The other 10 described the trial as a political witch hunt and said they would support Trump no matter what happened in court.

Trump faces three other criminal trials, including two related to his alleged efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat, although they are unlikely to go to trial before the November election.

But in a battle that appears to be shaping up to be very close in Pennsylvania and a handful of other swing states that decide the US election, losing even a small number of voters like Brown could be the difference between victory and defeat.

According to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polls earlier this year, 57% of respondents who planned to vote for Trump said they would do so even if he were convicted of a crime. About 13% of his supporters said they wouldn’t vote for him in that case and 29% said they weren’t sure.

While a guilty verdict was partly baked into expectations for the race, it still poses some risk to the Trump campaign, said Chris Nicholas, a Republican strategist in Pennsylvania.

“In swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and maybe a few others — if a few percent move one way or the other, that could be decisive,” he said, adding that some Republicans may now “leave the ballot blank for president or vote’. for Biden.”

STAY WITH TRUMP

Polls suggest Pennsylvania will be close. Polls collected by the website FiveThirtyEight show Trump leading Biden 42.9% to 40.8% in the state, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 8% support.

If history is any guide, the candidate who wins Northampton will likely win the state as well.

Since 1924, the winner in Northampton County has won Pennsylvania in all but two elections (1932, 1948), and in all but three (1968, 2000, 2004) the county’s winner advanced to the White House, according to Chris Borick. professor of political science at Muhlenberg College.

Trump won Northampton in 2016 by 4 percentage points — the first Republican to do so since 1988 — but lost to Biden in 2020 by 1,233 votes, or less than one percentage point.

Fifine Holva, a 65-year-old payroll specialist at a drug manufacturing company, says she will vote for Trump a third time regardless of whether he is convicted, and sees Biden’s policies on immigration and the economy as a greater risk.

“I do not condone his actions during his marriage in any way,” Holva said in an interview two days before the verdict was announced. ‘I vote for his policies. To make this world a bit normal again.’

Cori Shive, a 44-year-old Trump supporter, said that while she thought hiding a payment to cover up an affair was wrong, she wasn’t sure Trump was actually aware of it. She said she could not support Biden and would vote for Trump for a third time.

For Brown, breaking with Trump and possibly supporting a Democrat is not an easy decision. She said she is concerned about illegal immigration and the overall direction of the country under Biden.

But she also said the conduct at issue in Trump’s sentencing reinforced her concerns about his character, despite his insistence he was innocent of the charges.

“He has been found guilty of all this and maybe it’s time to learn,” she said. “He never learned to lose.” REUTERS